基于模糊评价的干旱区水资源与农业经济协调发展研究——以河西走廊五市为例

On Coordinated Development of Water Resources and Agricultural Economy In Arid Areas Based on Fuzzy Evaluation: A Case Study of Hexi Corridor

文章基于协同理论浅析了水资源和农业经济协调发展的内在作用机理,然后,构建模糊综合评价模型对河西走廊五市2003年至2013年水资源和农业经济的协调度进行了测度。结果表明:武威、张掖、酒泉、嘉峪关四市的水资源和农业经济的协调度随着时间演变呈现上升态势;金昌市的水资源与农业经济的协调度2012年前呈逐步上升趋势,2012年达到良好协调,而在2013年又下降为中级协调。河西走廊五市的农业经济子系统协调度总体上呈增长态势,而水资源子系统协调度除武威外从2010年起都表现出不同程度下降,五市水资源子系统协调度都处在中级及以下状态;水资源子系统协调度和农业经济子系统协调度没有显著的线性和非线性影响关系。最后,文章提出了促进水资源和农业经济协调发展的对策建议。

On the basis of synergy theory, this paper analyzes the internal mechanism for coordinated development of water resources and agricultural economy. Then, through the comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model constructed, the degree of the coordinated development of the five cities of the Corridor from 2003 to 2013, was recorded respectively, which shows that the coordination degree saw an upward trend over time in four of the five cities, namely, Wuwei, Zhangye, Jiuquan, and Jiayuguan; while the Jinchang city witnessed an upward trend in coordination degree before 2012, a good coordination in 2012, and yet an intermediate coordination in 2013. The coordination degree of the agricultural economy subsystem has witnessed a rising trend in general in the Corridor; while the coordination of water resources subsystem, except Wuwei, has seen a differentiated declining trend since 2010, and the coordination degree of water resources subsystem in five cities is in an intermediate or lower state. It can be concluded that there is no obvious linear or nonlinear relationship between the coordination of water resources subsystem and the coordination of agricultural subsystem. And suggestions to promote the coordinated development of water resources and agricultural economy are proposed.