基于政策制定者过度自信的最优通货膨胀路径研究

A Study of Optimal Inflation Path Based on Policymaker′s Overconfidence

在行为金融理论的框架下,考虑政策制定者的过度自信,建立最优通货膨胀路径模型。研究发现政策制定者过度自信情况下,最优通货膨胀路径值比完全理性情况下的最优通货膨胀路径值大,并且自信程度越高,最优通货膨胀路径值越大。相对于完全理性的政策制定者来说,过度自信的政策制定者会选择更高的预期通货膨胀率。

Under the f ramework of behavioral finance theory, the model of opt imal inf lat ion path is estab-l ished by considering the overconfidence of pol icy makers. The results show that the optimal inflation path under the condition of overconfidence is larger than the optimal inflation path under the condition of com-plete rationality, and the higher the degree of self - confidence, the higher the value of the optimal inflation path. Overly confident pol icymaker will choose a higher rate of expected inflation than a fully rational poli-cymaker.