地方政府债券信用风险的实证分析——以青岛市为例

An Empirical Analysis on the Credit Risk of Municipal Bonds——Taking Qingdao as an Example

基于对青岛市地方政府债券发行现状的分析,利用修正的KMV模型对2015~2020年地方债信用风险和安全发债规模进行估计。数据显示,尽管短期内不会发生违约,但当前青岛市发债总量已经超出安全规模。2019年青岛将迎来第一个偿债高峰期,面临较大的风险隐患。随着经济增速的回落、置换债券的集中发行,地方债未来偿付压力增大,地方债信用风险应引起足够重视。建议从地方债规模、期限结构、地方财政制度和融资模式等方面进行优化改革。

By analyzing the municipal bonds of Qingdao, using KMV model to estimate the credit risk and security scale of Qingdao municipal bonds in 2015-2020. Result shows that the total amount of Qingdao municipal bonds has exceeded the security scale, although default will not happen in the short term. In 2019, Qingdao will face the first debt repayment peak. With the economic growth rate reduced and large number of replacement bonds issued, the pressure of repaying municipal bonds increases in future. It should be paid enough attention for the credit risk of municipal bonds. Recommendations from the local government debt scale,term of interest rate,the local financial system and local financing model to opti-mize the reform.