冀西北坝上地区近50 a气候资源变化分析——以河北省张北县为例

Analysis on the Changes of 50 Years Climate Resources on Bashang Region in North-west of Hebei——In the Case of Zhangbei County

通过对冀西北坝上高原张北县1966—2015年近50 a来的气温、降水量和日照时长等气候因素的变化进行分析,揭示了该地区气候变化的若干事实,找出气候的变化趋势,以期对未来该地区气候变化规律的全面研究提供参考。结果表明,张北地区的年平均气温在近50 a间以0.4℃/10 a的气候变化率不断上升,以冬季的气温上升最快(0.55℃/10 a),检验发现,在1989年后年均气温上升趋势显著增强;进一步分析张北地区的极端高/低温,结果发现,二者均呈上升趋势,但极端低温的上升趋势更加显著。分析张北地区50 a间的降水量发现,其以-6.5 mm/10 a的变化率不断下降,其中以夏季降水量下降幅度最大(-15.97 mm/10 a)。对张北地区50 a日照时长研究发现,张北地区的日照时长以-57 h/10 a的变化速率不断下降,以秋季下降趋势最大,春季最小;M-K分析发现,张北的日照时长在20世纪90年代中期发生突变,并在90年代末下降幅度达到显著水平。通过对冀西北坝上地区的气候变化进行量化分析,可为进一步研究该地气候变化趋势以及未来作物的合理布局、土地的高效利用等奠定一定基础。

The objective of this study was to analysis the climate change using the temperature, rainfall and the hours of sunlight during 1966 to 2015 in Zhangbei county. The results would provide the scientific reference to explore the climate change in this region.The results showed that the average of air temperature was going up, and the rate was 0.4 ℃/10 a in the last fifty years, especially in winter seasons the rate was 0.5 ℃/10 a. The significant rising was happening after 1989 using the M-K test. During the rising of air temperature, the extreme high and low temperature were all on the rising, and the uptrend of the extreme low temperature was significant. The rainfall was decreasing, and the rate was-6.5 mm/10 a, and the evident change was in summer season, the rate was-15.97 mm/10 a. The hours of sunlight was also decreasing, and the rate was-57 h/10 a, and the maximum change was in Autumn, and the minimum change was in Spring. The change of sunlight in this region had a drastic change during the mid of 1990 s, and the lessen of the hours of sunlight was significant in the end of 1990 s. The results of this study could provide basis of studying the climate change, rational crop distribution and the high efficiency of land use.