劳动力老龄化、教育水平与地区全要素生产率

Ageing Labor Force,Education and Regional Total Factor Productivity

利用1988-2012年中国29个省份的面板数据,本文对不同教育程度的劳动力老龄化对全要素生产率的影响进行了研究。文章结果显示劳动力老龄化对TFP总体呈抑制作用,但当我们综合考虑学历和年龄两方面因素时,劳动人口老龄化程度加剧并不必然会阻碍经济的持续增长,其中具有较高教育水平的劳动人口老龄化显著提高了TFP水平。同时,高等教育老年劳动力对TFP的影响不仅取决于其本身,还与劳动者整体教育水平有关,整体教育水平越高,高等教育老年劳动力推动TFP进步的作用发挥得越明显。本文结果表明,要降低老龄化对经济的不利影响,提高人口的教育水平与人力资本存量不失一条可行之策。

Using China＇s provincial panel data from 1988 to 2012, this paper studies the effects of ageing labors with dif- ferent education levels on Total Factor Productivity. The results show that： the overall impact of ageing labors on economic growth performance is negative. However, when taking both education and age factors into account, the increasing degree of la- bors ageing does not necessarily hinder the sustainable growth of economy, especially the highly-educated ageing labors signifi- cantly raise TFP. The results of the article also show that the positive impact of highly educated ageing labors on TFP also de- pends on the overall education level of all labor force ： the higher the overall level of education, the greater the effect. In conse- quence, to reduce the adverse effects of ageing on national economy, raising popular education and human capital stock is a feasible solution.