跨越中等收入陷阱约束下民生财政对居民消费存在门槛效应吗?

Are There Threshold Effects of People's Livelihood Finance on Resident's Consumption under the Constraint of Crossing Middle Income Trap?

笔者通过理论分析机制发现,在跨越中等收入陷阱的居民收入动态变化过程中,民生财政收支活动对居民消费的影响作用呈现出先增后减的倒U型非线性效果。结合中国2002—2014年的省级面板数据,以居民收入为门槛变量,构建门槛效应面板数据模型对这一机制进行了实证检验。检验结果表明,对于城镇居民消费而言,无论是民生财政支出活动对城镇居民消费的刺激影响,还是民生财政收入活动对城镇居民消费的抑制影响,随着城镇居民收入的动态变化都呈现出先增后减的双重门槛效果,而对于农村居民消费而言,则都呈现出不断递增的门槛效果。同时,综合了民生财政收支活动影响居民消费的两种正反作用之后,最终民生财政起到了刺激居民消费的效果。进一步地,为了对处于当前居民收入发展阶段民生财政收支活动影响居民消费的绩效开展评估,笔者以民生财政收支活动本身为门槛变量来进行实证检验,检验结果表明,民生财政支出活动对居民消费的刺激影响效果随着民生财政收支规模的扩大而门槛递增。

Theoretical analysis in this paper finds that, in the dynamic change process of residents＇ income when striding across middle income trap, the impact of fiscal activities of people＇s livelihood on residents＇ consumptionshows a nonlinear and an inversed-U trend of ＂first increasing and then decreasing＂. Then, by using provincial panel data form 2001 to 2014 and setting residents＇ income as the threshold variables, we conduct a ＂threshold effect＂ panel model to analyze the above theoretical mechanism. The results show that for the consumption of urban residents, the impact of people＇s livelihood financial revenue and expenditure activi- ties on the consumption of urban residents represent double threshold effects of ＂first increasing and then decreasing＂. But for the rural residents, they all appear a continuous increase of double threshold effects. Moreover, in order to assess the performance of the impact of fiscal activities of people＇s livelihood on residents＇ consumption in the current development stage of residents＇ income, this paper uses the fiscal activities of people＇s livelihood themselves as the threshold variables for a further empirical test. The results show that the impact of people＇s livelihood financial revenue and expenditure activities on residents＇ consumption increases gradually with the expansion of the scale of fiscal activities of people＇s livelihood.