摘要
文章介绍了风电预测的正误差与负误差以不同的方式影响电力可靠性及经济性,而当前的评估指标却都基于绝对值概念及平均的准则,不能正确反映误差正、负符号的实际影响。提出了风电预测正、负误差影响电力系统的计算方法,并以实验算例分析、论证了风电预测误差评估考虑风险的必要性。
Positive error and negative error of wind power prediction have different impacts on power system reliability and efficiency. However, current error evaluation indexes are all from the viewpoint of average and absolute value of forecast errors that cannot reflect the impacts of different error symbols. The calculation method of different impacts of wind power prediction positive error and negative error on power system is proposed. Also, the necessity of risk assessment of wind power prediction error is analyzed and proved by an experimental example.
出处
《煤炭工程》
北大核心
2017年第F05期85-89,共5页
Coal Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金中泰合作与交流项目(51561145011)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51407039)
中国神华集团科技项目"多能互补新能源电站调控关键技术研究"
关键词
风电预测
正负误差
误差评估
风险指标
wind power prediction
positive error vs negative error
error evaluation
risk index