旅游者空间分布模型及其预测应用——以甘肃省县(区)为例

Model for Spatial Distribution of Tourists, and Its Application: A Case Study of Counties in Gansu Province

旅游具有空间属性,旅游者的空间分布研究是学界研究的重点,也是热点。文章借鉴伯克曼"通勤选择"的效用正态分布假设,构建旅游者空间分布模型,并依据甘肃省2015年县(区)统计数据,进行模型的检验与估计,研究显示该模型对甘肃省旅游者县(区)空间分布能进行较好的解释。在此基础上,文章将该模型作为预测模型,依据甘肃省旅游业与交通运输发展"十三五"规划的内容,对"十三五"末甘肃省旅游者空间分布状况进行预测,并与2015年的状况进行比较分析,揭示旅游者空间分布的演变趋势。研究表明,"十三五"规划的实施将推动甘肃省旅游者空间分布由中心城区向周边县(区)扩散,东南-西北向的丝绸之路经济带将得到增强,甘肃省东部的西南-东北向的旅游经济带也将显现雏形。该研究将有助于定量了解旅游者空间分布的影响因素,也为旅游者空间分布变化预测提供方法,为旅游饭店等服务设施的规划布局研究提供依据。

Tourism has a spatial attribute, and the study of the spatial distribution of tourists is now a significant and popular focus in academic research. The present study, using Berkman＇ s commuter choice as a reference, constructs such a tourist spatial choice model which the tourist population in place of departure, the attraction of tourist destination and the economical distance between the starting point and destination are regarded as independent variables. Compared with the existing tourist choice model, such a model can be treated as an interpretation model of tourist spatial choice on account of its basis on the assumption of the normal distribution of tourists＇ utility and its conditions and contents which are more consistent with the actual system state. This is the assumption that the present study bases on： the utility of tourists to tourist destination is normal distribution; tourists are set out from the tourist center city to the tourist destination; the tourist output of tourist center city is positively correlated with its trunk traffic accessibility; the quality and quantity of A grade scenic spot determines the expected average utility of tourists to the area. According to the statistics of Gansu county （regions） which were collected in 2015, the research shows that the model can be a better explanation for the spatial distribution of the tourism-attracting counties of Gansu Province. This is accomplished through testing and estimation of the parameters of the model which is constructed in the study. The findings could be used as the starting point for predicting the conditions of spatial distribution of tourists in Gansu by the end of the 13^th Five-Year Plan, which is under the situation where the model is regarded as a predictive model according to the contents of the 13^th Five-Year Plan for tourism and transport development in Gansu Province. By using the method of Gini coefficient, space autocorrelation and spatial interpolation analysis, the present study conducts a comparative analysis between predictive conditions in the research and the actual situations in 2015 and reveals the evolving tendency of spatial distribution of tourists. The research indicates that implementation of the 13^th Five-Year Plan for tourism and transport development in Gansu will promote the spatial distribution spread of tourists in Gansu province from city centers to surrounding county （regions） areas, and taking it a step farther, the Economic Belt of the Silk Road in the northwest-southeast will undergo improved tourist distribution, and the northeast-southwest tourism economy belt to the east of Gansu will show a prototype. The present study will be conductive to know factors of spatial distribution of tourists quantificationally. It will not only provide methods for predicting variation in this spatial distribution, but also give a hand to the layout planning of service facilities such as tourist hotels.