房价上涨对人口城市化的影响——基于房价收入比门槛效应的分析

Influences on population urbanization by the increasing of housing price:an analysis based on the threshold effect of housing price-income ratio

利用面板门槛模型,以房价收入比为门槛变量,实证检验了房价对人口城市化的门槛效应。结果显示:房价对人口城市化存在门槛效应;房价收入比的门槛值为0.115;当房价收入比小于0.115时,房价上涨对人口城市化没有显著影响;当房价收入比大于0.115时,房价上涨会阻碍人口城市化进程。2012-2014年,我国大部分省份的房价收入比都小于0.115(其中四川和江苏的房价收入比在2012年超过门槛值,在2013年和2014年低于门槛值),房价上涨没有阻碍当地人口城市化的进程。北京、上海、天津、浙江、福建、广东和海南的房价收入比在2012-2014年均超过了0.115,房价上涨阻碍了当地人口城市化的进程。

Using panel threshold model,putting housing price-income ratio as a threshold variable,this essay conducts an empirical study on the threshold effect of housing price on population urbanization in terms of the empirical analysis.Results show that: Firstly,the impact of housing price on population urbanization has a threshold effect. Secondly,the threshold value of housing price-income ratio is 0. 115. When housing price-income ratio is less than 0. 115,housing price has no significant effect on population urbanization; when housing price-income ratio is greater than 0. 115,the rising of housing price could impede the process of population urbanization. Thirdly,in2012-2014,most provinces' housing price-income ratios are less than 0. 115( the housing price-income ratios of Sichuan Province and Jiangsu Province in 2012 are more than 0. 115,however,in 2013 and 2014,their housing price-income ratios are less than 0. 115),the rising of housing prices does not hinder their local process of population urbanization. The housing price-income ratios of Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Zhejiang,Guangdong,Fujian and Hainan have exceeded 0. 115 in 2012-2014,the rising of housing prices have impeded the local process of population urbanization.