住房及房价波动对家庭消费影响的再估计——基于条件分位数回归方法

The Impaction of Housing and Housing Price on Household Consumption——Based on Conditional Quantile Regression

基于CHFS2011数据,运用条件分位数回归方法分别估计了住房及房价对家庭居住性消费和非居住性消费的影响,发现对于有房家庭,房价上涨通过财富效应刺激了家庭的居住性消费和非居住消费,而对于无房家庭,房价上涨通过替代效应减少了家庭消费。具体地讲,在整个消费分布上,房价上涨对家庭居住性消费的正向影响随分位数的不断增加呈"U"型,而房价上涨对非居住性消费的正向影响随分位数的不断增加呈逐渐递减趋势。家庭收入、家庭人口、户主受教育水平及城乡分布等变量都是家庭居住性消费和非居住性消费的显著影响因素。

Based on CHFS2011, this paper separately estimated the impaction of housing and housing price on living consumption and non -living consumption. We found that the housing price through the wealth effect stimulated living consumption and non -living consumption for the families which owning house. However, the housing price reduced household consumption through the substitution effect for the homeless families. Specifically, in the entire consumer distribution, the housing price increased family consumption with a ＂U＂ shape positively whereas decreased the non - living consumption gradually. The variables of household income, educational level and rural - urban distributions are significantly influenced the family consumption. However, there are some differences of the dependency ratio on the family consumption between living consumption and non -living consumption.