流动人口对城乡移动通信扩散的影响机制研究

A Study on the Influencing Mechanism of Migrant Population on Urban and Rural Mobile Diffusion

本文从微观个体的角度,证实网络效应在我国城乡移动通信扩散过程中的作用,揭示流动人口在城乡之间发挥传导作用并影响城乡移动通信扩散差距的内在机制。研究结果发现,网络效应对城乡移动通信扩散均发挥显著的正向作用,且城市地区的网络效应大于农村地区;城市强网络效应促使移动电话在流动人口群体内加速扩散,使流动人口的网络效应增强;移动电话在流动人口群体内的扩散对农村移动通信扩散具有促进作用,表现为与亲人之间联络产生的直接效应和通过增加农村安装基础产生的间接效应。流动人口在城乡群体之间发挥传导作用,最终使城乡移动通信扩散的差距得以缩小。

This paper,from the perspective of micro individual,confirms the impact of network effect in the process of urban and rural mobile diffusion,and reveals the internal mechanism that the migrant population play a conduction role between urban and rural areas,and in turn,affect the gap between urban and rural mobile communication diffusion. The results indicate that the network effect plays a significant positive effect both on urban and rural mobile communication diffusion,and this effect is stronger in urban areas than in rural areas; that strong network effect in urban areas hastens the mobile diffusion within the groups of the migrant population,and enhances the network effect of the migrant population. The spread of the mobile phone within the groups of the migrant population has a promoting role in the diffusion of rural mobile communication,which is demonstrated as the direct effect coming from contacting relatives and the indirect effect coming from increasing rural Installed Base. The migrant population play a conduction role between urban and rural groups,bridgingthe mobile diffusion gap between urban and rural areas.