江苏省化肥施用强度变化驱动因子分解及其影响因素分析

Decomposition of Driving Factors and Analysis of Influencing Factors on the Change of Chemical Fertilizer Intensity in Jiangsu Province

基于江苏2006-2014年13市77地区的面板数据,采用完全因素分解模型对化肥施用强度影响因素进行分析。结果表明:江苏化肥施用强度下降主要由效率变动驱动,其累计驱动效应达127.85%,种植结构调整反而制约了化肥施用强度下降,累计驱动效应为-27.85%;效率变化驱动的化肥施用强度随着经济水平的提高呈明显下降趋势,江苏化肥施用强度正处于"倒U型"的下降治理阶段;化肥施用强度下降的主要影响因素是农业科技进步、适度规模经营、新型农业经营主体培育及生物有机肥替代。因此,应坚定不移地推进技术推广、土地流转、剩余劳动力转移及粪便资源化利用。

In order to achieve the goal of reducing fertilizer,the driving factors of chemical fertilizer intensity change were decomposed into structure effect and efficiency effect by means of the complete factor decomposition model,based on panel data of 77areas in 13cities in Jiangsu province during 2006-2014.Then,the fertilizer intensity driven by efficiency change was decomposed by the chemical fertilizer intensity decomposition model,and the influencing factors were analyzed.Results showed that the decline of Jiangsu chemical fertilizer intensity was mainly driven by the efficiency change,and its cumulative driving effect was 127.85%.The adjustment of planting structure restricted the decrease of chemical fertilizer intensity,and the cumulative driving effect was-27.85%.Chemical fertilizer intensity driven by efficiency change showed a significant downward trend in company with economic development.It verified that Jiangsu’s chemical fertilizer intensity was in the descent pollution control stage of'inverse U'.The essential reasons for the decrease of chemical fertilizer strength were agricultural science and technology progress,moderate scale management,cultivation of new agricultural management subject and application of biological organic fertilizer.Therefore,we should unswervingly promote the popularization of agricultural technology,land transfer,surplus labor transfer and utilization of manure resources.