变化世界中的全球变暖及其治理困境——巴黎气候会议之后的气候治理逻辑

Governance Dilemmas for Global Warming in the Changing World——Climate Governance Logic after Paris Climate Change Conference

巴黎气候会议之后全球变暖的治理方案与行动中,虽然风险心理与预警原则是减排行动的基石,但是存在着一些不确定因素:随着全球经济危机、政治动荡与化石能源价格的连锁变化,世界各主要国家与人民的关切也发生了明显转移,气候治理的紧迫性与可行性以及全球集体行动的约束条件与利益期待也悄然发生了改变;更为重要的是,随着经济的减速,煤炭、石油与天然气的价格在可见的未来将维持低位,必然推动化石能源消费的增加。这一趋势将决定性地影响着全面减排的前景。事实上,努力治污,适度减排,通过发展经济来最终提升人们对气候变化的适应能力,才是真正审慎可行的选择。

Since Paris Climate Change Conference, the psychology of risk and precautionary principle have become the foundations of actions to reduce emissions, but some uncertainties still exist. As fossil fuel energy prices keeps changing with the deepening global economic crisis and political in- stability, the major countries in the world have clearly shifted their concerns. Invisible changes have al- so taken place in the feasibility and urgency of climate change control, global constraints on emission and benefitexpectations. More importantly, as economy is slowing down, the prices of coal, oil and natural gas will remain low in the foreseeable future, which will certainly drive up the consumption of fossil fuel energy. This trend will decisively influence the prospect of reducing overall emissions. In fact, the real cautious and viable option for the world is to control pollution, reduce emissions moderately and strengthen people＇s ability to adapt to climate change by developing economy.