基于Copula-Monte Carlo法的水库防洪调度多目标风险分析

Multi Objective Risk Analysis of Reservoir Flood Control Operation Based on Copula-Monte Carlo Method

考虑干支流洪水不确定性对水库防洪调度的影响,提出了一种基于Copula-Monte Carlo(Copula-MC)法的水库防洪调度多目标风险分析方法,定量描述汛期干支流洪水不确定性给水库防洪调度决策带来的风险,并利用基于组合权重的理想点法对各调度方案进行多目标风险决策,最后将该方法应用于向家坝水库防洪调度风险分析中,计算了不同调度方案下水库自身和下游防洪区的风险,并通过决策给出了最优调度方案,为向家坝水库防洪优化调度提供技术支持。

Considering the influence of flood uncertainty in main streams and tributaries on reservoir flood control operation, a muhi-objective risk analysis method for reservoir flood control operation was proposed by using Copula-Monte Carlo method. This method can quantitatively describe the risks of reservoir flood control operation from flood uncertainty of main streams and tributaries in flood season, and make multiple objective risk decision to operation schemes with TOPSIS method based on combinational weight. Finally, this method was applied to the risks of flood control operation of Xiangjiaba reservoir. Risks of reservoir and flood control area were computed and an optimal operation scheme was presented. The results demonstrate that this method is a useful tool to aid in handling the contradiction between risks and benefits of reservoir flood operation, which can provide technical support for multi-objective decision-making of reservoir operation.