物流产业发展与能源消费关系的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Relationship between the Development of Logistics Industry and the Energy Consumption

基于我国1995~2014年相关统计数据,采用计量经济学方法检验物流产业发展与物流能源消费间的关系。研究表明:我国物流产业发展与能源消费间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,客货周转量和全社会固定资产投资对能源消费有负向影响,物流产业增加值与能源消费同向变动。能源消费和产业增加值是客货周转量的格兰杰原因、客货周转量是全社会固定资产投资的格兰杰原因。客货周转量、产业增加值和全社会固定资产投资对物流能源消费均有正向冲击。能源消费对客货周转量、产业增加值和全社会固定资产投资的贡献率均持续上升。

Based on the relevant statistical data in the period of 1995 -2014 in China, this paper uses the econometric methods to analyze the relationship between the energy consumption and the development of logistics industry. There is a long- term, stable and equilibrium relationship between the energy consumption and the development of logistics industry in China. The passenger and cargo turnover volume and the total investment in fixed assets have a negative impact on the energy consumption. The added value of logistics industry and the energy consumption change in the same direction. The energy con- sumption and the added value of logistics industry are the Granger cause of the passenger and cargo turnover volume, while the passenger and cargo turnover volume is the Granger cause of the total investment in fixed assets. The passenger and cargo turnover volume, the added value of logistics industry and the total investment in fixed assets have a positive response on the energy consumption. The contribution rate of energy consumption reflects a continued upward trend.