经济增长随机收敛性的非线性实证检验——以东亚经济共同体为例

A Nonlinear Empirical Test of Stochastic Convergence of Economic Growth——A Case Study of EAEC

以东亚经济共同体各国同中国的相对实际人均GDP为研究对象,采用非线性单位根检验及有放回的残差抽样Bootstrap方法,检验其经济随机收敛性(细化为长期收敛和过程收敛),以期科学考察经济的动态增长。实证结果表明:同中国相比,东亚经济共同体各国人均相对产出序列均具有明显的非线性时序特征,且超过一半的国家人均产出序列相对中国来说处于非线性收敛中。此研究为未来东亚经济一体化的构建及缩小国际区域经济差距,提供了新的依据。

With the relative real per capita GDP of the East Asian Economic Community （EAEC） countries and China as the research object, this paper uses nonlinear unit root test and residual sampling ＂Bootstrap＂ to test their economic stochastic convergence （long-term convergence and process convergence） to observe economic dynamic growth. The results show that, compared with China, per capita relative output sequences of EAEC countries have obvious nonlinear characteristics, and the per capita output sequences of over half of EAEC countries are in nonlinear convergence. This study provides a new basis to promote economic integration in East Asia and narrow regional economic gaps in the future.