“营改增”对行业理论税负的影响与抵扣因素研究——基于浙江省投入产出数据的分析

A Study of the Influence of “Replace the Business Tax with a Value-added Tax”on Theoretical Tax Burden and Deduction Factors——An Analysis based on the Input-output Data in Zhejiang Province

全面推开营业税改征增值税是我国现阶段最重要的税制改革之一,本文使用投入产出法测算浙江省在2012年试点改革和2016年全面改革两阶段中所涉及行业的理论税收和税负的变动情况,并通过投入产出模型分析来自各行业中间投入的进项税额,结合现实经济中的税收政策与行业现状对浙江省重点行业税负变化的原因进行分析。研究发现,"营改增"的减税效应比较明显,测算的18个行业整体减税效应良好,除文化艺术服务业、房地产业、水利业之外理论税收负担均下降;从产业结构上看,来自建材行业和文教用品的进项抵扣为建筑业和金融业理论税负的减轻做出了贡献,来自租赁和商务服务的进项抵扣不足是造成房地产业理论税负增加的主要原因,体现了"营改增"打通第二、三产业抵扣链条,避免了对生产环节重复征税的作用。

To replace the business tax with a value-added tax is one of the most important tax reforms in our country at the present stage. The thesis uses the input-output method to measure the changes in the theoretical taxation and tax burden of the industries involved in the pilot reform in 2012 and the comprehensive reform in 2016 in Zhejiang Province, analyzes the input VAT of each industry and the reasons of tax burden change in important industries by combining the present tax policy and industrial situation. The study finds out tax reduction effect is obvious after the reform, the theoretical tax burden of most industries calculated significantly has decreased, except for cultural and artistic services, real estate and water conservancy; from the perspective of industrial structure, deduction from the building materials industry and cultural and educational inputs make a major contribution to the reduction of theoretical tax burden of construction industry and financial sector, the lack of input deduction from leasing and business services is the main reason for the increase of theoretical tax burden in the real estate tax, reflecting ＂replace the business tax with a value-added tax＂ gets through the deduction chains of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry and the effect avoiding repeated taxation on production.