我国粮食价格政策调控有效性实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Grain Price Policy Regulation in China

随着我国粮食价格调控政策的实施,特别是2006年以来国家补贴的力度不断增大,粮食价格在频繁波动的同时呈现出不断上升的趋势,使得粮食价格调控有效性的争论日益激烈。本文利用国内与国际玉米、大米、大豆和小麦的月度价格数据,从协整的角度分析国内与国际粮食价格之间的联动关系,从国内粮食价格自身波动的角度分析和检验我国粮食价格政策调控的有效性。结果表明:在过去的十年中,我国政府对四大粮食价格的政策调控并不能带来粮食价格的平稳,政策调控有效性欠佳;国内与国际粮食价格没有表现出显著的协整关系;随着粮食价格调控程度的减弱,国内与国际粮食价格的协整程度逐渐增强,但国内与国际粮食价格相互影响的程度在品种上存在差异;国内大豆粮食价格波动存在集簇性、跨期传递效应和条件异方差特性,而玉米、大米和小麦价格波动的集簇性、跨期传递效应和条件异方差特性都不显著。我国政府应掌握好管理和调控的粮食品种与调控力度,培育粮食市场的功能和粮价的国际竞争力。

With the implementation of China＇s food price control policy and constant increase of grain price subsidies in China since 2006, grain price also showed a rising trend, which leads to increasingly fierce debate on the effectiveness of food price regulation. Using the domestic and international monthly price data of maize, rice, soybean and wheat, the paper analyzes the linkage relationship between domestic and international food prices from the perspective of cointegration, and tests the effectiveness of domestic grain price policy regulation from the perspective of domestic food price fluctuate itself. The results show that： in the past ten years, the domestic government＇s policy control over the four major food prices, cannot bring a smooth grain prices ; domestic and international grain price did not show a significant cointegration relationship ; with the weakening of the degree of grain price regulation, domestic and international food prices have gradually increased, but there are differences between domestic and international grain prices affect each other in the varieties; grain price fluctuation of domestic soybean has cluster, intertemporal transfer effects and conditional heteroscedasticity characteristics, and corn, rice and wheat price volatility have no significant cluster, intertemporal transfer effects and conditional heteroscedasticity characteristics. Our government should grasp grain varieties and regulation efforts to foster the function of grain market and the national competitiveness of grain prices.