国际服务贸易成本影响因素分析——基于40个经济体面板数据的研究

An Analysis of the Determinants of International Service Trade Costs——Research based on the Panel Data of 40 Economies

基于经济服务化、服务国际化的背景,本文从服务贸易成本的"共性"与"个性"因素——空间距离、语言壁垒、服务时差、服务限制以及服务贸易协定等方面,估计了全球40个经济体相互间1995-2011年服务贸易成本的影响因素。研究结果表明:地理距离、时区差异以及服务限制能够提高服务贸易的成本,而共同边界、共同语言以及区域服务贸易协定可以降低服务贸易的成本;在时间变化趋势的影响程度上,地理距离以及时区差异的影响程度逐渐降低,而服务限制与区域服务贸易协定的影响程度则逐渐增强。因此,在降低服务贸易成本以扩大服务贸易规模的方式上,各国需要针对上述多个维度同时采取相应的政策措施,尤其是要重视服务时差。

Based on the background of tertiarization and service globalization, this paper analyzes the determinants of 40 economies＇ service trade costs from 1995 to 2011 from the aspects of generality and personality factors of service trade costs space distance, language barriers, time zone differences, service restriction and service trade agreement. Research results show that geographic distance, time zone differences and service restriction can promote service trade costs while the existence of shared borders, common language and regional service trade agreement would play an inhibiting role ; on the impact trends, the influence of geographic distance and time zone differences gradually decreases while service restriction and regional service trade agreement gradually increases. Therefore, on the way to reduce service trade costs to expand service trade scale, all countries need to take corresponding measure for the above dimensionss, especially should pay attention to influence factors that have obvious service characteristics, such as service lag, service restriction and regional service trade agreement.