宁波市2008～2012年手足口病时空聚集性分析

Spatial-temporal analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease in Ningbo, 2008-2012

以街道/镇/乡为基本空间单位,采用时空扫描统计量对宁波市2008~2012年手足口病的时空聚集性特征进行分析.结果显示:2009~2012年宁波均出现了有统计学意义的一级时空聚集区,聚集区的相对风险介于3.76~5.37,即聚集区内是聚集区外手足口病发病风险的约3~5倍.时空聚集性出现的主要区域为宁海和象山的绝大多数街道/镇/乡.宁海和象山是宁波市手足口病的发病热点地区,需要采取针对性措施进行重点防控.

Surveillance data of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） of Ningbo city during the period of 2008-2012 was analyzed by the spatial-temporal scan statistic. The main purpose of the study was to detect high-incidence clusters and the basic spatial units were sub-district/town/township. The results showed that the most likely clusters with statistical significances occurred in Ningbo annually during the period of 2009-2012. The relative risks ranged from 3.76 to 5.37, which meant the risks of HFMD in these clusters were 3-5 times higher than those out of the clusters. Some sub-districts/towns/townships of Ninghai county and Xiangshan county were the high-incidence clusters of HFMD in Ningbo. In summary, Ninghai county and Xiangshan county were the hot-spots of HFMD epidemics in Ningbo and for the control and prevention of HFMD epidemics.