APEC国家双边贸易成本测算——基于纳入不可观测部分的测算方法

Measurement on the Bilateral Trade Cost of APEC Countries:Based on the Method Considering Unobservable Part

文章基于1989~2014年APEC成员国(地区)的双边面板数据,将贸易成本的来源细分为可观测部分(地理阻碍、政策阻碍)和不可观测部分(制度阻碍、文化阻碍),运用改进的引力模型构造测算方程,综合测算了由可观测和不可观测因素造成的APEC国家(地区)双边贸易成本。研究发现:APEC成员国(地区)双边贸易成本总体呈现下降趋势;低贸易成本主要集中在东南亚、东北亚地区;高贸易成本集中于墨西哥、秘鲁两国;中国与APEC成员国(地区)双边贸易成本多为中等成本以下,呈现下降趋势,且低于APEC平均水平。

Using the bilateral panel data of APEC countries during 1989 ~ 2014,this paper estimates bilateral trade costs( including observable and unobservable) of APEC countries with an augmented trade cost function,decomposing sources of trade cost into geographical,politicial,cultural,and institutional barrier. The findings suggest that,firstly,there is a downward trend of APEC bilateral iceberg trade cost; secondly,low trade cost appears in regions of Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia; thirdly,high trade cost appears in bilateral trade among Mexico and Peru; fourthly,trade costs between China and other APEC countries are in middle-high level,downward trend and under the average level of APEC's.