东北三省人口结构与经济发展的时空耦合特征

Spatial-temporal coupling characteristics between population structure and economic development in Northeast China

人口问题已成为当前振兴东北老工业基地的一个热点。运用灰色关联分析法,构建人口结构与经济发展相互作用的关联度模型和耦合度模型,研究东北三省人口结构与经济发展的时空耦合特征。研究结果如下。东北三省36市(地区、自治州)人口结构与经济发展的耦合度在空间上存在一定的差异,分为低水平协调耦合型、拮抗型、磨合型和高水平协调耦合型4种类型,以拮抗型为主,其次为磨合型。在时间序列上,2004—2013年东北三省人口结构与经济发展耦合度大致可分为两个阶段:在第一阶段(2004—2009年),耦合度呈现波动上升;在第二阶段(2010—2013年),耦合度急速下降。根据人口结构与经济发展的时空耦合特征,东北三省应加快产业结构优化升级,吸引培养留住优秀人才,促进人口与经济协调发展,保障东北老工业基地振兴。

The population problem has become a focus for revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China. Utilizing the gray relative analysis method （GRA） and building quantitative assessment models, we study the spatial-temporal coupling characteristics between population structure and economic development in Northeast China. Research results are given as follows. In the spatial sequence, there are clear differences in the coupling degree between population structure and economic development among the cities. In terms of the coupling characteristics and the coupling degree value, the 36 cities are classified into four types, namely, low-level, antagonism,running-in, and high-level types. The major type is the antagonism, followed by running-in type. In the temporal sequence, there are two significant periods. From 2004 to 2009 the coupling degree rose with fluctuat, and from 2010 to 2013 the coupling degree fell down quickly. According to the spatial-temporal coupling characteristics industrial structure, attracting talents, coordinated developments of population China. , countermeasures such as optimizing and u cultivating talents, and retaining talents and economy, and promote the revitalization pgrading the enhance the of Northeast