摘要
2016年,中国玉米生产结构调整初显成效,玉米面积、产量双降;玉米价格全面下跌,消费需求逐步回暖;国内外价差大幅缩小,玉米及其替代品进口明显减少。预计2017年中国玉米面积将继续调减,但调减幅度可能有所收窄;国内玉米价格总体弱势运行,但存在反弹可能;玉米消费将进一步增长,有望创历史新高;国内外玉米价格将基本接轨,玉米及其替代品进口预期进一步减少。
In 2016, the production structure adjustment of China＇s maize has achieved some results with planting area and total production both decreased. Overall maize market price declined and consumption became gradually warmer. Price gap between domestic and international maize markets sharply shrank, so the imports of maize and its alternatives significantly reduced. Looking forward to 2017, planting area of China＇s maize is expected to reduce continually, but descent rate probably will be lower than that in the past year. Domestic maize price will remain weak in the mess, but maybe rebound in some case. Maize consumption will further increase and perhaps reach a historical peak. Domestic price will be nearly in the line with international price, so the imports of maize and its alternatives are expected to further reduce.
出处
《农业展望》
2017年第4期4-9,14,共7页
Agricultural Outlook
关键词
玉米
生产
消费
市场价格
进出口
展望
maize
production
consumption
market price
import and export
outlook
