复杂系统中指标实际贡献率的计算

Calculation of Actual Contribution Rate in Complex System

传统的权重只能代表静态下指标对总值的贡献大小。复杂系统中由于各因素间存在相互关联并随时间而变化,在众多因素间相互关联作用下计算指标的实际贡献率一直是管理科学与工程领域研究的一大难点。文章运用系统动力学理论和方法,以典型的人力资本投资系统为例,构建SD仿真模型,输入实验数据进行仿真,提出在各因素相互关联下动态的实际贡献率计算方法,为研究复杂系统提供新的思路。研究表明:运用SD方法,能够较为科学地计算出各要素的实际贡献程度,相比权重更能准确反映动态下的实际作用。

Traditional weights only represent the contribution of static indicator for the total value. In the complex systems, various factors are correlated with each other and change with time. Therefore, calculation of the actual contribution rate under the background of influence of many factors is a difficult issue in the field of management science and engineering. This paper utilizes system dynamics theory and method, and takes the typical human capital investment system as an example to construct an SD sim- ulation model and input experimental data to do the simulation. The paper also puts forward the calculation method of the actual contribution rate of each factor, which provides a new idea for the study of complex systems. The study shows that the SD method can be used to calculate the actual contribution of each factor scientifically, and reflects the actual effect of the dynamic state more accurately than the traditional weights.