创新驱动发展的双元路径及其关联机制——基于全要素生产率的实证发现

Dual Path and Related Mechanism of Innovation-driven Development——An Empirical Finding Based on TFP

以城市经济序贯发展历程为关注焦点,通过分析并检验其中TFP发展的主要表征、典型路径及关键影响因子,以期总结经验得失,同时亦为提升城市发展TFP提供本土经验和决策启示。以索洛余值法测度经济增长中的TFP贡献率,研究发现,当前经济增长主要依靠资本和劳动力要素驱动,TFP驱动经济发展的成效仍待提高。从促成经济增长的"输血"与"造血"两方面凝练TFP的发展路径,实证结果还显示,"造血式"路径中的人力资本和R&D投入对TFP有促进作用,"输血式"路径中的出口贸易对TFP有促进作用,而进口贸易和FDI对TFP有抑制作用。进一步研究表明,对TFP的影响上,"造血式"路径指标和"输血式"路径指标的两两交互项均呈现显著的互补效应,这意味着,为实现创新驱动发展的目标,应协同推进"造血式"路径和"输血式"路径,最终在其间的有机关联互动中整体提升经济增长中TFP贡献率。

The paper deeply explores that the path of development driven by innovation from the perspective of Total Factor Productivity （TFP） is very valuable. Accordingly, this paper focuses on sequential development process of urban economy, analyzes and inspects main characterization, typical path and critical impact factors of the process, in order to sum up experience, merits and demerits, also provide local experience and revelation of decision-making for developing TFP. Measuring TFP contribution in economic growth by Solow residual method, through the research, we can find that economic growth is driven by capital and labor elements, while economic development driven by TFP factors remains to be improved. Condensing development path of TFP through two aspects--Blood transfusion and Helnatopoiesis can promote economic growth. The empirical results also show that, human capital and P,.＆D investment in Hematopoiesis can promote TFP, and export trade in Blood transfusion has a positive effect on TFP, while the influence of import trade and FDI is negative. Further research shows, the interaction between Hematopoiesis metrics and Blood transfusion metrics affects TFP present complementarity, which means, Hematopoiesis and Blood transfusion should be promoted at the same time for achieving development driven by innovation and finally comprehensively upgrading TFP contribution rate in the growth of economy in the interaction of the two aspects.