中美全球化再平衡与中国经济金融周期的涅槃重生——兼议2017年下半年资产投资配置策略

US-China globalization rebalancing and revitalization of China＇s economy --Asset allocation strategy in 2017

文章对中美全球化再平衡的发展格局和中国经济前景进行研判，指出特朗普的贸易战政策不会改变贸易全球化的大势所趋，中国引领全球化有助于全球新格局的形成；在全球通胀归来和供给侧改革的背景下，中国式“后工业化”的多项动能将驱动中国经济进入新的成长周期。在此基础上，文章进一步探讨了中国特色的金融改革顶层设计，与未来一段时期大类资产配置策略。

This paper studies the development patterns of US-China globalization rebalancing and forecasts China＇s economic outlook, noting that Trump＇s trade war policy would not change the general trend of trade globalization, and that China-led globalization would contribute to the formation of a new global landscape. Under the background of the rising global inflation and the supply side reform, ＂post-industrialization＂ economic forces will drive China to enter into a new growth period of economy. On this basis, this paper further discusses the top design for financial reforms with Chinese characteristics, and the allocation strategy of broad asset categories in the next period of time.