人民币兑美元汇率升贬值压力之谜

The mystery of the appreciation/devaluation pressure on RMB against the USD

人民币汇率问题始终是业界关注的焦点问题。如何客观地衡量汇率贬值压力，文章构建了一个简便的压力指数来进行观察，并运用凯恩斯货币需求理论，从三类货币需求角度剖析人民币汇率的决定因素。结论指出，在人民币的三方面需求中，交易和储备需求长期稳定，主要波动因素来自投资需求，而改善投资需求的关键在于维护国内外经济主体对中国经济增长的预期和信心。

The RMB exchange rate issue has always been the focus of the financial industry. This paper designs a simple pressure index to observe and measure the depreciation pressure on RMB, and analyzes determining factors of the RMB exchange rate from the perspectives of three types of demand for money in Keynes demand for money theory. The paper concludes that, among the three types of demand for RMB, demands for transaction and reserves maintain stability in the long-term, while fluctuations mainly stem from investment demand. However,the key to improve investment demand lies in maintaining expectations for and confidence in China＇s economic growth both home and abroad.