经济调整中企业经营风险预测仿真

Simulation of Business Risk Prediction in Economic Adjustment

经济调整中对企业经营风险的预测,可以更好的为企业取得预期利润。对企业经营中风险进行预测,需要确定影响企业风险发生可能性的因素集,构建企业风险区间数单因素评判矩阵,完成对企业经营风险的预测。传统方法根据企业风险模糊评价体系,计算出企业经营风险预测概率,但忽略了风险因素矩阵的组建,导致预测精度较低。提出基于层次分析理论的企业经营风险预测方法。结合区间模糊综合评判理论确定影响企业风险因素集,构建区间风险因素评判矩阵,结合逼近理想解理论计算出风险因素权重进行复合运算,由此组建经济调整中企业经营风险问题的数学方法,对企业经营风险问题方法进行求解,计算出最优目标函数值及企业经营风险措施组合,以此为依据组建经济调整中企业经营风险预测方法。实验结果表明,所提方法能够有效预防、降低和规避循环经济调整过程中的企业风险。

This article proposes a method for risk prediction of business operation in economic adjustment based on analytic hierarchy. Firstly, our research confirmed factor set influencing business risk integrated with fuzzy com- prehensive evaluation of interval and built an evaluation matrix with single factor of interval, then worked out weight of risk factor integrated with approximate ideal solution to carry out compound operation. Thus, the research built a mathematical method for the problem of operation risk. Moreover, we solved the method of risk problem and worked out combination between value of optimal objective function and measure of business operation risk. According to that, we completed the risk prediction method. Experimental results show that the method can predict, reduce, and evade the business risk effectively.