摘要
自2011年末开始的不良贷款规模反弹,开启了新一轮不良资产上升周期。本文搭建了一个不良资产的分析框架,从宏观和微观等层面对不良资产的成因及其作用机理进行系统性分析,并对未来不良资产走势进行判断和预测。总体而言,宏观经济、信贷政策、供给侧结构性改革、房地产调控、金融机构、企业经营、行政干预等诸多因素交织在一起,导致了债务质量下降、不良资产规模持续上升。与之前相比,本轮不良资产的成因明显不同,不良资产的收购和处置须洞见症结,对症下药。
The rebound of Non-performing Loans started a new cycle and the Non-performing Assets keep increasing since 2011. This paper constructs a framework for the formation mechanism of Non-Performing Assets and systematically analyzes the influential factors from both the macro level and the micro level. Finally, based on the latest data, this paper predicts the future trend of NPA. Generally, various factors had led to the increase of NPA, such as the macro economy, credit policy, the supply side structural reform, regulation of the real estate sector and the micro behaviors of financial institutions, firms, and governments. Since the reasons are significantly different than before,we should get to the heart of the problem and suit the methods to the situation when dealing with NPA.
出处
《浙江金融》
2017年第3期10-18,共9页
Zhejiang Finance
关键词
不良资产
形成机理
分析框架
未来走势
Non-Performing Assets
Formation Mechanism
Analysis Framework
Future Trend
