经济失速背景下的“土耳其模式”危机与土欧关系

The Crisis of the Turkish Model and Turkey-EU Relations in the Context of Economic Stagnation

近年来,土耳其面临政治、安全、外交与经济上的多重困局,尤其是经济的持续疲弱正在产生日益深远的内外影响,曾经被树为发展样板的"土耳其模式"也陷入危机之中。经济失速使"土耳其模式"赖以形成的经济基础大幅削弱,从而推动了国内的政治动荡与保守化,加快了埃尔多安的威权化步伐,也加剧了既有的外交困局。经济失速、民主褪色、外交困境共同导致"土耳其模式"的危机甚或破产,从而削弱了土耳其的国际地位,影响其入盟进程,使土欧双方的核心期待均遭破灭,进而动摇了双边关系的内在基础,而难民危机等外在冲击也激化了双方的分歧与矛盾。当前的土欧关系走到了调整与重建的十字路口。

In recent years,Turkey has encountered multiple dilemmas in the fields of politics,security,diplomacy and economy.In particular,the lasting stagnation of the Turkish economy has caused far-reaching internal and external effects,which makes the so-called'Turkish Model'trapped into crisis.The continuous economic stagnation has weakened the economic basis on which the'Turkish model'is founded,exaggerated domestic political turmoil,enhanced Erdogan’s authoritarianism,as well as exacerbated the existing diplomatic dilemma.The crisis or even bankruptcy of the'Turkish model'has damaged Turkey’s international status and affected its EU accession process,which has led to the collapse of the core expectations between Turkey and EU and shaken the intrinsic basis of bilateral relations.What is much worse is that the external shocks,especially the refugee crisis,have intensified the divergences and conflicts between the two sides and brought the bilateral relations to a crossroads.