法国的叙利亚政策析论

A Tentative Study on French Policy towards Syria

叙利亚是战后法国全球战略构建以及在中东发挥大国角色的重要支点。"阿拉伯之春"爆发后,法国对叙利亚采取了"民主改造"、抛弃巴沙尔政权的干预政策,不断加强同沙特等海湾国家的关系。本文回顾了法叙关系的发展历史,检视了法国在叙利亚内战中的政策,并分析了影响法国对叙政策演变的主要因素,认为过多的政策目标和自身实力的限制,使法国难以发挥与自身实力并不匹配的大国影响,法国未来仍可能在叙利亚政策方面深陷力不从心的困境。

Syria occupies a critical role in France’s global strategy and in its position as a great power in the Middle East.After the outbreak of the'Arab Spring',France undertook an intervention policy aimed at realizing'democratic transformation'in Syria,abandoning the Bashar Regime while taking continuous efforts to strengthen its relations with the Gulf countries.This paper makes a review of the development of France-Syria relations,examines France’s policy in the Syrian civil war and analyzes the key factors influencing the evolution of French policy towards Syria.It argues that a combination of an excess of policy objectives and the its limited power makes it difficult for France to exert influences surpassing its own strength.Overall,the future policy of France towards Syria will still be confronted with a number of dilemmas.