国家金属资源安全研究回顾与展望

Review and prospects of national metal resource security

金属资源是国民经济建设的重要物质基础,金属资源安全事关国家安全。本文从内涵机理、驱动因素、评估方法、战略与政策四个方面梳理了近年来国家金属资源安全研究进展。研究表明,国家金属资源安全涵盖供给安全、经济安全和生态安全,主要受资源禀赋、经济发展、技术进步等因素的影响。国家战略性金属的关键性评估方法包括关键性矩阵、关键性指数和未来供需定量分析等;金属资源需求预测方法主要有趋势外推法、自下而上法和数理统计法等;国家金属资源市场势力和定价权评估方法主要有勒纳指数、HHI指数以及均衡博弈模型等。世界各国都根据本国国情采取了不同的金属资源安全保障战略和政策工具。未来应加强在国家金属资源非常规安全机理、新技术革命对金属资源供需的冲击、国际贸易规则以及重大战略实施对国家金属资源安全的影响等方面的研究。

Metal resources are critical materials for Chinese economic development, and their security is closely related to national security. Here we systemically review the connotation and mechanisms, driving factors, evaluation methods, national strategies and policies of national metal resource security （NMRS）. The content of NMRS covers the security of supply, price and environment. The key factors that influence the security status of NMRS are resource endowment, economic development, technical progress, and ecological environment. In principle, existing studies apply three approaches to assess the criticality of metals, criticality matrices, criticality indices and quantitative future supply and demand analysis. The most used approaches in metal demand forecasting are the trend extrapolation method, bottom-up approach and mathematical statistics. The market power and pricing of metals are estimated by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, Lerner index, and equilibrium game models. Different strategies and policy tools for metal security are adopted by countries or regions depending on their national circumstances. Based on these findings and the needs of social development, future study in NMRS should focus mainly on the following four areas： （1）comprehensive research on the mechanism of NMRS; （2）the influence of new technological revolution on NMRS; （3）impacts of changing international trade rules and pricing mechanism on NMRS; and （4） evaluation of the impact of international significant strategies on NMRS.