京津冀区域城市二氧化碳排放效率及减排潜力研究

Research of the carbon dioxide emission efficiency and reduction potential of cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

在京津冀协同发展战略深入推进的背景下,本文选择京津冀区域的13个城市为研究对象,重点分析各城市的二氧化碳排放效率及减排潜力,以期为通过城市间协同减排完成碳排放达峰目标提供借鉴。首先,采用考虑非期望产出的SBM模型对京津冀13个城市2005-2014年的二氧化碳排放效率进行测算;然后,通过运用基于公平性和效率性原则的减排潜力指数,对各城市的减排潜力进行了定量分析并将其划分为"较公平高效型"、"较公平低效型"、"欠公平高效型"和"欠公平低效型"四种类型。结果表明,研究期内京津冀城市整体碳排放效率出现下降的趋势,只有北京、秦皇岛两个城市排放效率相对有效;各城市减排潜力指数虽然存在差异但也表现为相对稳定的态势,其中北京减排潜力最低而唐山减排潜力最高。各城市应根据城市类型划分结果,明确未来减排工作重点,严格控制二氧化碳排放量,实现二氧化碳减排和经济增长协调发展。

Scientifically measuring the carbon dioxide emission efficiency and reduction potential of Chinese cities is an important basis of hitting peak emissions as soon as possible. Under a background of promoting the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei synergetic development strategy, we chose 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region as the research object and focused on the carbon dioxide emission efficiency and reduction potential of each city, to provide a reference for peak emissions. We adopted the SBM model which considers undesirable outputs to calculate the carbon dioxide emission efficiency of the 13 cities from 2005 to 2014. We then applied the carbon reduction potential index based on the principles of fairness and efficiency to quantitatively analyze the reduction potential; we were able to divide the 13 cities into four types. ＇high equity and high efficiency＇, ＇high equity and low efficiency＇, ＇low equity and high efficiency＇ and ＇low equity and low efficiency＇. We found that the overall carbon emission efficiency of the Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei Region decreased during the research period and only Beijing＇ s and Qinhuangdao＇ s carbon emission efficiency are relatively effective. Although the carbon reduction potential indexes of each city are different, they are characterized by a relatively stable situation whereby the index of Beijing is the lowest and the index of Tangshan the highest. According to the category result of each city based on the equity index and efficiency index, these data confirm the key work of carbon emission reduction, strict control of carbon dioxide emissions, and coordinated development between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth into the future.