异质性通胀预期对通货膨胀形成机制的动态影响——基于混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的实证分析

The Dynamic Impact of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations on the Mechanism of Inflation Formation——An Empirical Analysis Based on Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve

通过对异质性通胀预期与实际通货膨胀动态关系的实证研究,证实了不同微观经济主体的预期都会对实际通货膨胀产生影响,并且适应性预期所占比例远远大于理性预期。更进一步,适应性预期与理性预期对实际通货膨胀的影响力不同,理性预期对实际通货膨胀的即期影响力大于适应性预期,但是影响的持久性却小于理性预期。所以央行在调控通货膨胀的时候,应关注微观经济体的通胀预期异质性,适时引导各种异质性预期,从而锚定微观经济体的预期,使得货币政策能够顺利实施。

Through the empirical research on the relationship between heterogeneous infla- tionary expectation and actual inflation,it is confirmed that the different microeconomic subjects all have impacts on the actual inflation.The proportion of adaptive expectation in the microeco- nomics is far greater than that of rational expectation. The effect of adaptive expectation and ra- tional expectation on actual inflation is different.The impact of adaptive expectation on actual in- flation is greater than that of rational.The persistence of the effect is also greater than the rational expectation. Therefore, the central bank should pay attention to the microeconomics~ heterogeneity of inflation expectations, so as to anchor the economy＇s expectations, and make the smooth implementation of monetary policy.