河北省道路交通部门节能减排情景分析

Scenario analysis of the energy conservation and the mitigation of emissions for Hebei province's road transport

基于COPERT模型,对河北省道路交通部门的能源消耗、CO_2排放和4种大气污染物排放(CO,NO_x,PM2.5和SO_2)进行计算,探讨提高机动车排放标准政策和总量控制政策在2015—2030年的减排潜力.研究结果表明,提高机动车标准政策对NO_x、PM 2.5和SO_2的减排效果显著,相比于基准情景,在2030年对3种污染物实现减排效果分别为74.20%、43.33%和80.17%.而机动车总量控制政策则对节约能耗与减少CO_2和CO排放效果明显,相比与基准情景,在2030年实现节能37.96%、CO_2减排37.84%和CO减排35.81%.建议应尽快实行统一的机动车排放标准政策,并将适当的小客车总量控制措施纳入未来政策的制定中.

This research uses the COPERT model to provide the estimates of the regional fuel consumption, the total amount of CO2 emissions, and the emissions of four criterion pollutants （ CO, NOx, PM 2. 5, and SO2 ） and gives a scenario analysis of the mitigation potentials under strengthening vehicle emission standards （SVES） and constraining vehicle registration （CVR） for the period from 2015 to 2030. The results suggest that SEVS scenario can achieve a greater reduction of NOx, PM 2. 5 and SO2 emissions. Compared with the business as usual （BAU） scenario, it can achieve the reduction of NOx, PM 2. 5 and SO2 emissions by 74. 20%, 43.33% and 80. 17% respectively in 2030. The CVR policy is not only the most effective measure to save fuel consumption, but can also achieve the greatest reduction of CO2 and CO emissions. By implementing the CVR measure, it can reduce fuel consumption, CO2 and CO emissions by 37. 96%, 37. 84%, and 35.81% respectively in 2030, compared with the BAU scenario. Therefore, it is suggested that Hebei should adopt the same policy for the emission standard as Beijing as quickly as possible, and take into consideration the implementation of a more strict vehicle control policy in the future.