基于复杂网络的地铁运营风险传导规律研究

Research on Metro Risk Conduction Based on Complex Network Theory

地铁是特大城市有效解决通勤交通、实现交通低碳化的首选交通运输设施系统,极大地缓解了城市交通运行压力。但是伴随着地铁运营的网络化建设和规模的日趋庞大,导致安全事故频发,地铁运营风险传导也呈现出网络化特征。基于复杂网络理论,对地铁运营风险传导网络的基本规律进行了研究。结果表明:地铁运营风险传导网络中存在一些度很大的节点,而这些度很大的节点又与其临近的节点之间有很强的聚集程度,容易导致风险传导的发生,进而导致严重的后果。该研究可为地铁运营管理部门制定风险防范措施提供依据。

Metro is a preferred delivery facility system of megacities which can effectively solve the commuter traffic problem and realize the low carbon traffic,and it has greatly eased the pressure of urban traffic.But along with the network construction of subway operation,the scale of metro operation is becoming larger,safety accidents frequently happen and risk conduction in metro operation has a network feature.Based on complex network theory,this paper studies the basic law of the Metro network risk conduction,the results show that there are a lot of nodes with great degree in the subway operation risk conduction network,and there is a strong aggregation among the nodes and their neighboring nodes,which will incur risk conduction and lead to severe negative consequence.