四川省林火次数与气象因子的相关性研究

Correlation Analysis on Forest Fire Occurring Frequency and Meteorological Factors in Sichuan

以四川省2012-2015年的森林火灾发生与相关气象因子(温度、相对湿度、风速、降水量和大气压)历史数据,将每月林火发生次数与当月和前月的气象因子做相关性分析并建立模型,对四川省南部地区和西昌气象站周围200km范围内的地区进行研究。结果表明,气象因子的前期积累与森林火灾的发生有一定关系;因不同地区的地形地貌和植被类型等环境因素的不同,气象因子对林火的影响程度不尽相同;影响森林火灾发生次数的主要气象因子为前月相对湿度和前月风速,林火发生次数随湿度的下降和风速的上升而增加,以四川省南部地区为研究区域时,二者之间的相关系数分别为-0.130和4.599,而以西昌气象站周围200km范围内地区为研究区域时,相关系数则为-0.156和6.679。

This paper collected the records of the forest fire occurring in Sichuan Province during 2012-- 2015 and related meteorological factors （temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and pres- sure）. Models of the correlation were established between the occurring times of forest fire in current month and the meteorological factors of the last month. The research areas covered southern Sichuan and the region 200 km around Xichang meteorological station. The results showed that the accumulation of me- teorological factors in early period had relations with forest fires. Meteorological factors demonstrated dif- ferent effects on the occurrence of forest fire in different regions due to the variations of the topography and vegetation types. The relative humidity and wind speed in the last month were the main factors for the occurrence of forest fire, the times of forest fire increased with the drop of humidity and the rise of wind speed. The correlation coefficients between forest fire and humidity,as well as weed speed were -0. 130 and 4. 599 ,respectively in souther Sichuan, while they were -0. 156 and 6. 679 respectively, in the region near Xichang meteorological station.