西藏经济中长期可持续发展的战略选择

Strategic Choice for Mid-and–long Term Sustainable Development of Tibetan Economy

供给侧理论框架是分析一个国家或地区中长期经济增长的重要方法,特别是我国经济发展进入新常态后,供给侧理论事实上已经成为政府治理和宏观调控的重要遵循。从资本、劳动、全要素生产率这三个最重要的经济供给要素看,西藏经济无疑正处在投资驱动型粗放式增长阶段。如果将研究视角拉长,西藏经济实现中长期可持续发展,将势必经历一个要素升级、动力转换和制度变革的关口,其核心是以供给侧结构性改革推动全要素生产率提升。为此,必须依托结构性改革挖掘最大潜力,依托提高劳动力素质积累人力资本,依托创新驱动实现产业转型升级,依托新型城镇化打破城乡二元结构,推动经济从投资驱动向创新驱动转变,为西藏经济长久发展注入不竭动力。

Supply-side theoretical Framework is an important method in analyzing one country or district＇ s long- term economic development. As long as China entered the ＂economic new normal＂, Supply Side Theory is of vi- tal importance to national governance and macro control. Seen from capital, labor and total factor productivity, which are the most important economic supply factors, Tibetan economy is on the way of extensive growth pow- ered by investment. If we stretch the research perspectives, the mid-and-long term sustainable development of Tibetan economy will inevitably face a phase of element upgrade, power conversion and institutional change, the key point is promoting the total factor productivity through supply-side structural reform. Therefore, we must rely on the structural reform to maximize the growth potential, rely on the promotion of labor quality to accumulate hu- man capital, rely on the innovation driven to transfer and upgrade the industrial structure, rely on the new type urbanization to break the urban-rural dual structure, driving the economic growth from investment-oriented to in- novation-oriented, providing inexhaustible driving force for long-term sustainable development of Tibetan econo- my.