湖南省涉外经济与GDP增长关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Relations between Foreign Economy and GDP Growth in Hunan Province

涉外经济是指对外贸易、引进外资和境外投资的总称。根据2000~2014年湖南省对外贸易、引进外资、境外投资三个方面与湖南省GDP的统计数据,设计经济增长模型,并运用协调分析技术（KPSS）和OLS估计,对湖南省涉外经济的三个方面与湖南省经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明：湖南省涉外经济占湖南省GDP总量比例偏低,湖南省的引进外资和境外投资相比对外贸易规模偏小;对外贸易（openrate）、引进外资（fdirate）、境外投资（ofdi）三个变量仅有对外贸易对经济增长的影响统计显著,说明湖南涉外经济中只有对外贸易能够促进其经济增长,但其对经济增长的贡献有限;而引进外资与境外投资对经济增长的影响不显著。

Foreign Economy refers to foreign trade,inward foreign direct investment（IFDI）and outward foreign direct investment（OFDI）in general.According to the data 2000-2014 of Hunan＇s foreign trade,IFDI,OFDI and the GDP statistics,we have designed the economic growth model and use the coordination techniques（KPSS）and OLS estimate method to analyze the relationship between the three aspects of Hunan International Economy and economic growth by empirical analysis.The results has showed that：（1）Hunan＇s foreign economy accounts for the low proportion of total GDP;（2）IFDI and OFDI in Hunan Province are small compared to the scale of the foreign trade;（3）among the three variables of the foreign trade,IFDI and OFDI only the impact of foreign trade on the economic growth is statistically significant,indicating that only the Hunan foreign trade has promoted the economic growth,but its contribution to economic growth is limited;（4）the impact of IFDI and OFDI on the economic growth is not significant.