开征环保税能有效治理空气污染吗

Can Environmental Taxes Effectively Control Air Pollution

中国第一部《环境保护税法》将于2018年初施行,本文从理论和实证两方面的研究为开征在即的"环保税"提供了理论支撑。在理论方面,建立包含空气污染的动态均衡模型,模拟结果表明:市场化合理税率的环保税既能有效治理空气污染,又能维持经济福利的稳定增长;差异化环保税将激励污染行业转移,统一性环保税的长期治理效果优于差异化环保税;不合理的行政干预将降低环保税的实施效果。在实证方面,基于55个国家1994—2014年的数据,综合运用GQR方法和双重差分法来验证环保税的污染治理效果,结果显示:环保税对不同国家的影响是异质的,其中,碳税与污染物排量存在异质性因果关系,在PM2.5浓度、NO排量和NO2浓度都特别高的国家,开征碳税将显著改善空气质量;在空气质量较差的国家,提高汽车运输环保税反而不利于污染物减排。实证结论表明,汽车尾气排放不是中国空气污染的主因,工业上的大量化石燃料消耗才是空气污染的"罪魁祸首"。据此提出政策启示:尽快设立针对化石燃料燃烧的环保税税目(如"碳税"),空气污染治理政策应以市场机制为主、适度行政干预为辅等。

Environmental Protection Act in China will be implemented for the first time at the beginning of 2018, and this article provides theoretical support for the introduction of ＂environmental tax＂ from two aspects. From the theoretical perspective, we establish a dynamic equilibrium model including air pollution, and simulation results show that the environmental tax with market-oriented reasonable rate can not only effectively control air pollution, but also maintain steady growth of welfare. Regional differentiated environmental tax stimulates pollution industry to transfer, while national united environmental tax has a better long-term control effect than the former. Unreasonable administrative intervention will reduce the positive impact of environmental tax. On empirical side, using the data of 55 countries from 1994 to 2014, we use the GQR method and DID method to verify the effect of environmental tax on pollution control, the results show that the effect of environmental tax in different countries is heterogeneous. Among which carbon tax has a heterogeneous causal relationship to emissions, and carbon tax will lead to the improvement of air quality in countries whose PM2~ concentration, NO emissions, NO2 concentration are particularly high. Increasing transportation-related environmental tax is adverse to countries with poor air quality. The empirical conclusion also indicates that vehicle emissions is not the main cause of air pollution in China, while industrial fossil fuel consumption is the ＂culprit＂ of air pollution. So we put forward policyies, for example, the government should set up environmental tax items for fossil fuels as soon as possible （carbon tax）, and air pollution control policies should be given priority to market mechanism and supplemented by appropriate administrative intervention.