“一带一路”与人民币国际化的未来

The "Belt and Road" Initiative and the Future of the RMB Internationalization

一带一路"为人民币国际化提供了历史机遇,人民币国际化则为"一带一路"提供了流动性支持。本文回顾了"一带一路"对人民币国际化的影响渠道和一国货币成为估计货币的条件,估算了"一带一路"对人民币国际化的中期影响,并提出了有关政策建议。同时,本文使用引力模型估算了货币互换协议对双边贸易的影响,发现货币互换协议对双边贸易存在显著的正面影响,可以得出结论:中国与相关国家签订货币互换协议显著提高了中国与该国之间的贸易值,并且互换规模越大,相应提升贸易值的作用也越大。

The ＂Belt and Road＂ initiative provides a historical opportunity for the internationalization of RMB, and the internationalization of RMB provides liquidity support for the initiative. This paper reviews how the initiative influences the internationalization of RMB and the conditions for the currency of a country to become international, estimates the medium-term influence of the initiative on the internationalization of RMB, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions. At the same time, this paper uses the gravitational model to gauge the effect of the currency swap agreement on bilateral trade, which could lead to a conclusion that the currency swap agreements signed between China and other countries have significantly increased their bilateral trade, and the larger the size of the currency swaps, the greater the role of them in promoting trade.