2016年全球上游油气并购市场回顾及2017年展望

Global Upstream M&A:2016 in Review and 2017 in Outlook

2016年,在国际油价筑底回升带动下,全球并购市场呈现明显回暖态势,在剔除近两年两笔超大额交易影响后,交易金额同比实现翻番。全年并购市场围绕北美非常规油气和俄罗斯国有资产私有化两个焦点展开,两者交易金额分别占全球56%和22%。并购油气资源储量创2012年以来新高。非常规资源仍是市场交易热点。市场各参与方走势分化,国家石油公司是资产主要卖家,国际石油公司连续两年成为"净买家",独立石油公司在买卖双向动作均较大,私募基金和其他公司参与意愿加大。预计2017年并购市场将好于2016年。北美致密油交易范围有望进一步扩大;北美以外地区交易金额有望反弹;私募基金交易可能创纪录;油气资产的评价油价仍将维持较低水平。

In 2016, as oil prices bottom bounce, upstream MA began to recover with deal spend doubling after stripping out the two mega-deals from these years. The MA activity increased, largely thanks to a buoyant North America unconventionals market and the privatization process in Russia, which separately accounted for 56% and 22% of global MA spend. The resource traded in 2016 has created the highest figure since 2012. Uncoventionals was still a hotspot in MA market and sub-category of resource type within uncoventionals saw significant increases in 2016. Corporates performed differently in this year： NOCs were the major sellers in market, Majors were ＇net buys＇ in past two years, and Independents were active in both buy and sell sides, PE and Others showed a positive attitude. Global MA activities are expected to be higher in 2017. The market will show new trends： US deal activity will broaden out beyond the Permian, rest of the world activity will pick up from a low base, PE will make its mark, Downward valuation trend to halt, and decarbonisation/demand destruction will remain a limited driver of MA.