进度风险量化分析与实践

Schedule Risk Quantitative Analysis and Practice

在国际总承包项目中,项目进度风险量化分析是项目计划管理和优化的重要手段。本文从承包商的角度,以进度风险量化的流程为主线,采用蒙特卡洛模拟技术将各种不确定性和风险换算为对整个项目进度目标产生的潜在影响,通过风险分析软件Primavera Risk Analysis进行模拟运算,计算一定置信度下的整个项目的完工日期及敏感性排序,以集中资源对敏感性分析排序较高的风险和活动采取积极的应对措施。

In the international EPC project, the schedule risk analysis has a great influence on schedule management and optimization. Uncertainty and risk have been transferred into potential impact on project schedule objective according to the Monte Carlo Method. The article conducts the risk analysis by Primavera Risk Analysis software, and then calculates the completion date under a certain confidence and the sensitivity priority, so as to focus on how to deal with the high risks.