中澳FTA对中新进口贸易的溢出效应分析

Spillover Effect of Sino-AUS FTA on China's Import from New Zealand

基于中澳FTA对不同产品的关税政策差异,本文通过双重差分模型直接检验了中澳贸易自由化对中新进口贸易的影响,研究结果表明:在中澳关税削减后,中新优惠商品进口相比基准期有显著提高,但削减前的中新优惠商品进口相比基准期无显著差异;中澳关税削减显著促进了中新进口贸易,但对中美、中欧和中日进口贸易均无此影响;中澳关税削减幅度越大,对中新进口贸易的促进作用越显著,但对中美、中欧和中日进口贸易也无此影响。本文的结论表明,中澳关税削减对中新进口贸易有显著促进作用,中澳FTA对中新进口贸易有正的溢出效应。

This paper uses a difference in difference approach to directly ana- lyze the effect of China-Australia trade liberalization on China＇ s import from New Zealand based on the tax reduction in the China-Australia free trade agree- ment. The results are： （1） China-New Zealand trade exhibit a significant increase following the tariff reduction between China and Australia. There is no signifi- cant difference for the goods which have been subjected to preferential tax rate when compared with the baselines prior the tariff reduction. （2） Tariff reduction between China and Australia only enhances China-New Zealand trade, similar ef- fects are not present in China-USA, China-EU and China-Japan trade. （3） The ex- tent of tariff reduction between China and Australia is positively correlated with China-New Zealand trade. The extent of tariff reduction has no similar noticeable effect on China-USA, China-EU and China-Japan trade. Therefore, China-Austra- lia free trade agreement has a positive spillover effect on China＇ s import from New Zealand.