蔬菜价格波动对农村居民福利效应研究——基于省际面板数据模型分析

Effects of Vegetable Price Fluctuation on Rural Residents' Welfare——Based on provincial panel data model

蔬菜价格波动影响农村居民收入变化,而农村居民收入是农村居民福利的重要内容。本文借鉴补偿变量法思想,利用省际面板数据揭示了蔬菜价格波动与农村居民福利变化的关系。研究结果显示:蔬菜生产价格变化影响着农村居民人均生产福利同方向变化,而蔬菜零售价格变化则导致其反方向变化,但变化幅度存在明显的省际差异;蔬菜价格稳定更有利于农村居民人均短期总福利的增加等。政策建议:提升组织化程度,以契约精神保障农村居民蔬菜生产利益;科学设置各类补贴制度;构建系统化的蔬菜信息平台,促进蔬菜种植决策行为优化保障农村居民蔬菜生产利益。

Based on the theory of compensation variable, this paper uses the panel data from 2003 to 2014 to reveal the relationship between vegetable price fluctuation and welfare change of rural residents. The results show that the change of vegetable production price affected per capita pro- duction welfare of rural residents in the same direction, the retail price of rural vegetables af- fected per capita consumption welfare of rural residents changes in the opposite direction, but there are obvious inter-provincial differences in the variation range; the stability of vegetables price is more favorable to the increase of per capita short-term welfare of rural residents etc.. The Policy Suggestions：Improved the systematism degree of vegetable industry to enhance spirits of Contract for protecting interest of rural vegetables producers; scientifically set various subsidies systems for vegetable industry; constructed systematic the information platform to Optimize deci- sion-making behavior for protecting interest of rural vegetables producers.