探索我国生猪价格波动与生产能力的关系

Exploration on the Relationship between Hog Price Fluctuation and Its Productivity

本文从供给侧探讨影响生猪价格波动的原因,主要分析生猪生产能力与生猪价格波动的关系。选择能繁母猪的存栏量作为衡量生猪生产能力的指标,在对能繁母猪的存栏量与生猪价格进行协整检验的基础上,通过建立误差修正模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差预测分解法,分析了二者之间的动态关系。结果表明,生猪价格和能繁母猪存栏量相互影响,且二者之间存在长期均衡关系。为此,本文建议对生猪产业支持应以不直接干涉生猪价格为前提,以支持养殖环境改善,生猪保险等方式稳定生猪生产能力;并提出建立生猪价格和母猪存栏量的均衡指数,以完善生猪价格预警指标体系,引导生猪产业的健康发展。

This paper discusses the causes of the fluctuation of hog price from the perspec- tive of the supply side, and analyzes the relationship between that and the hog productivity. Based on the integration of the amount of livestock and the hog price by selecting productive sows as the index of evaluating hog productivity, we analyze the dynamic relationship with the establishment of error correction model, by using the decomposition method of impulse response function and variance prediction. As can be illustrated, there is an interactive influence be- tween such two factors, with the existence of a long term balanced relation. Therefore, this paper suggests that support on hog industry should put the prerequisite that there is no direct interference on hog price and such support should be carried out onto improvements like breed- ing environment and hog insurance, to stabilize the hog productivity. We also propose that the establishment of balanced index of hog price and the amount of livestock, to perfect the alarm- ing index system on hog price, and to guide the healthy development of hog industry.