我国出口企业遭受反倾销后贸易偏转效应研究——以美国对华反倾销案例分析

The trade deflection on Chinese exporters when suffering from antidumping investigations——a case study of US Antidumping filing against China

本文选取全球反倾销数据(GAD数据)和中国海关数据,运用计量经济学DID模型,研究了美国对华发起反倾销后,我国不同性质企业的出口产品如何向第三方国家发生贸易偏转的问题。结果表明:(1)我国出口企业的产品出口额在遭受美国反倾销后,自反倾销调查开始即出现急剧下降;(2)我国近一半出口企业的产品,相比在同时期没有遭受美国反倾销的出口企业产品,对其他地区的出口总额多出2%左右;(3)国有企业、贸易型企业、一般贸易型企业、单一产品型企业的产品更容易发生贸易偏转。最后,本文基于实证结果提出了相应对策建议。

Using the World Bank global antidumping database （GAD） and China Custom data, combing econometric DID model, the essay investigates the trade deflection ef- fects associated with heterogeneous Chinese exports to the third market arising from US antidumping investigations. The results shows： Firstly, US antidumping investiga- tions on Chinese exports cause a substantial decrease in the export volume to US mar- ket as soon as filing the antidumping. Secondly, compared control-group ,nearly half of Chinese exporter-product pairs are reoriented to the third markets during differ- ent antidumping periods and have access to more 2% total export. Thirdly, exiting from US market as well as transferring to the third market after final ITC determina- tions is exerted by state-owned exporters versus to other counterparts, by trading enterprise to manufacturing firm, by general trade exporters relative to process- ing-trade exporters and by single -product with respect to multi -product. Finally, this paper puts forward the practical suggestions based on the empirical results.