水电站施工期洪水预报系统设计与开发

Design and development of flood forecasting system in construction period of hydropower station

为了克服水电站施工期洪水预报方案不足,解决施工期洪水预报工作中存在的一些实际问题,针对水电站施工期的河道特性变化,分析了水电站施工期洪水预报的特定需求,提出水电站施工期洪水预报系统的设计思路和研发目标。总体设计方案包括系统开发及运行环境、设计的基本原则、预报模型配制的技术方案、施工期各阶段到运行期预报方案转换的思路等。系统总体上由数据支撑层、应用层、人机交互层构成。重点介绍了该系统开发的预报方案编制与修正、实时洪水预报等主要应用功能。本系统可针对水电站施工的不同阶段快速建立或调整预报方案;实时洪水预报可人机交互进行,支持增加输入预见期内降雨数据的预报,可为早期的防洪决策提供参考依据。该系统已集成到四川锅浪跷水电站施工期水情自动测报系统投入实际应用,从应用情况来看,该系统运行稳定、实用,达到了预期的研发目标,为开展施工期洪水预报工作提供了有效工具。

In order to overcome the deficiency of flood forecasting scheme during the construction of hydropower station and solve some practical problems from the flood forecasting in the construction period, the specific demands of the flood forecasting in the construction period of hydropower station are analyzed herein for the change of river channel characteristics at that time, and then the design ideas and developing target of the flood forecasting system for the construction period of hydropower station are put for- ward. The general design scheme includes the system development and operation environment, the basic design principle, the technical scheme for the forecasting model preparation, the ideas of the transformation from all the phases of construction period to the forecasting scheme of operation period, etc. The system is generally composed of supporting layer, application layer and man-machine interaction layer. The main application functions, such as programming and revising of forecasting scheme, real- time flood forecasting, etc. , for the system development is mainly introduced herein. The system can rapidly establish and ad- just the forecasting scheme for various phases of the construction of hydropower station; with which the real-time flood forecasting can be carried out with the man-machine interaction and the adding of the input precipitation data to the forecasting in the prediction period can be supported as well; thus the relevant reference frame for the early flood control decision-making can be provid- ed. The system is already integrated into the automatic telemering system for water regime during the construction of Gualangqiao Hydropower Station in Sichuan Province and put into the actual application. From the aspect of application, the operation of the system is stable and practicable, thus reaches to the expected developing target and provides an effective tool for carrying out the flood forecasting in construction period.