基于关键链的信息系统项目开发进度风险分析

Risk Analysis of Project Development Progress Based on Critical Chain Information System

在项目开发管理中,进度风险分析是决定项目最终成败的决定性因素之一,也是信息系统项目管理中尤为重要的一步。由于在项目开发管理过程中进度计划具有确定性和不确定性的性质,使得进度计划表现出一定的随机性。本文在基于关键链技术的基础上,以约束理论为工具,概括了进度风险的分析步骤,并分析了基于关键链的三个必要的方向:关键链的确定、缓冲区大小的设置和缓冲区管理。在研究过程中,使用基于资源冲突启发式的策略对已确立好的关键链进行优化模型的建立,并分析了这些研究方法对于项目进度风险的影响和对项目管理过程的意义,为项目管理者提供解决进度风险的方法并促进关键链技术的进一步成熟。

In development and management of project, the progress of risk analysis is not only to determine the final outcome of the project one of the decisive factors, but also information systems project management is an important step.Due to the deterministic and uncertain nature of the progress plan during the project development management process, the schedule shows a certain degree of randomness. Based on the key chain technology, this paper takes the constraint theory as a tool, summarizes the steps of the analysis of the progress risk and analyzes the three necessary directions based on the key chain： the determination of the key chain, buffer size setting and the buffer management.In the process of research, the optimization model of the key chain is so established based on the strategy of resource conflict heuristic, and the influence of these research methods of the project scheduled risk and the significance of the project management process is analyzed. In the process of research, the optimization model of the key chain is based on the strategy of resource conflict heuristic, and the influence of these research methods on the project schedule risk and the significance of the project management process is analyzed. Provide a solution to the risk of progress and facilitate the further maturity of key chain technologies.