地理、市场与规制:两宋以降南中国外贸港口偏移分析

Geography,Market and Regulation:Shift-share Analysis of Southern China's Foreign Trade Ports from Song Dynasty to ROC

两宋以降,海上丝绸之路渐次勃兴、东南"海洋中国"浮现,在宋元、明至清中叶、晚清民国不同阶段,南中国沿海外贸港口的选址、功能、贸易方式、空间形态等均持续变动,其中,地理、规制、市场三大驱动因子的权重此消彼长,成为观测中世纪以来中国长期经济变革趋向的一个窗口。该文通过对两宋以来南中国外贸港口偏移中三个关键因素的追踪与分析,探讨10世纪以来,贸易经济下东南"海洋中国"的演进轨迹、趋势性方向、动力来源,寻找中国经济长期表现的历史轨迹与内在的必然趋向。

Abstract： Maritime Silk Road rose gradually and southeast ＂Maritime China＂ emerged after Song Dynasty. It witnesses the change of the site, function, spatial form of coastal trade port in southeast China during Song ~. Yuan Dynasties, Ming ~ middle Qing Dynasty, late Qing Dynasty ＆ the Republic of China. Among them, the weights of three driving factors （geography, regulation, market） are changing. Based on the shift-share analysis of foreign trade port in South China from Song Dynasty, it discusses the evolution trend and the powerhouse of the southeast ＂Maritime China＂ in the trade economy, and searches the inevitable trend of the Chinese economy in long period. Keywords： Geography; Market ; Regulation; Shift-Share Analysis